NEIGHBORHOOD CRIME UPDATE
Downtown Chicago Foodie Group Target Market
Trailing Year 9/6/26
AT A GLANCE
- Chicagoland Crime Is Hyper-Localized By Block
- The Time A Crime Is Committed Is A Key Variable
- The Late-Night Crime Profile In River North Is Dramatically Different From The Daytime Profile
- Auto Burglaries Jumped 132% During The First Half & Are Up More Than 400% Since 2019
- The Per-Capita All Crime Rates In The Near North Side, Loop & Near West Side Are Well Above The All-Chicago Average.
- The Per-Capita Sexual Assault Rates In The Loop, Near West Side, Near North Side & The Lower West Side Are Twice the Chicago Average.
- The Near North Side Violent Crime Rate Is Below The All-Chicago Average While the Loop & Near West Side Are Well Above The All-Chicago Average
- Unlike The Near West Side, All Categories of Violent Crime In The Near North Side Community Area Dropped Sharply On A YTD August Basis
1. Methodology
Chicago reports crime on 77 Community Areas, covering over 250 neighborhoods, within the Community Areas and 22 Police Districts. Because Chicago doesn’t tack crime by sub-neighborhood, it can be difficult to analyze.
Based on time period, area, type of crime and comparability, the output can vary significantly by third party providers of neighborhood crime. It also varies by official source. Given their limitations and different methodologies, the DCFG limits their crime analysis to carefully selected official government and police sources. Links to nine of the most frequently used third party providers can be found on the DCFG’s Restaurant Dining Resources page under Secondary Crime Resources. The page also hosts nineteen Primary/Official Chicagoland Crime Resources.
When analyzing crime, it’s important to note the variance by definition, official source, preliminary vs official, time period, category, time committed, Community Area and neighborhood. It’s also essential to note that crime can vary dramatically by Community Area, neighborhood, sub-neighborhood and micro areas within the neighborhood. Have no doubt, Chicagoland crime is hyper-localized by block.
Crime & demographics covering Chicagoland, Community Areas and neighborhoods are all helpful and a good place to start. Nevertheless, the most meaningful crime analysis requires one to identify the type of crime, the micro area, the benchmark period and the time it was committed. While generally overlooked, time is a key variable. Indeed, the crime profile of the party centric River North at 2:00 a.m. is dramatically different from its daytime profile.
The comparative group is also very important. Comparing the best and worst in a relatively small control group to each other is different from comparing them to all Community Areas. In other words, the worst in a limited control group, like the DCFG’s target market, may look fine when compared to an appropriate larger area. Ideally, the control group should be compared to each other and larger areas. The larger areas for comparison should be applicable to a Chicagoland urban type setting.
2. High Volume Property Crime & Sexual Assaults
While Chicago’s violent crime is concentrated, other forms of crime are not evenly distributed. Property crime is by far the largest category of crime in Chicagoland, including theft/larceny, burglary, motor vehicle theft and property damage. For a variety of reasons, it is also the most difficult to track in a timely manner.
The raw volume of property crime in the Near North Side and Near West Side Community Areas are the highest in Chicagoland. The highest number of property crimes in the Near North Side area are concentrated in the southeast commercial/entertainment areas of River North while the quieter western residential areas report fewer incidents.
The highest number of property crimes in the Near West Side are in the western areas while the southwest areas experience the lowest volume of property crime. The northern sections have the highest per-capital risk while the northeast (West Loop) is considered the safest.
As noted, the time period is an important dynamic because the multi-year, annual, trailing year and YTD crime patterns look quite different. The raw volume of all crimes in the restaurant/nightlife rich and Loop Community Areas is, however, among the highest. As you can see from the trailing year tables below, the crime volume may align with typical urban commercial density profiles, but the per-capita all crimes rate, particularly Larceny/Theft, is above the Chicago average.
The raw and per-capita violent crime rate in the Loop and Near West side are also well above the Chicago average.
Contrasting with low homicides, but like property crime, the Near North Side’s raw volume of criminal sexual assaults are among the highest in Chicagoland. While the data is based on reported assaults, most sexual assaults are not reported. The per-capital criminal sexual assault rates for the Loop, Near West Side, Near North Side and Lower West Side are almost twice the Chicago average.
The assaults generally occur in the heavily trafficked entertainment & late-night areas with dense commercial/transient traffic. The concentration of reports correlates with nightlife dynamics in the entertainment districts rather than systemic neighborhood violence.
Because the majority of violent crime is clustered around 2:00 a.m. in the dense nightlife locations, the daytime crime profile for River North is much safer. The most important thing visitors can do to minimize exposure is to dine and socialize earlier in relatively safe neighborhood areas. By doing so, they are practicing situational awareness and avoidance. Given the big increase in Chicago’s auto burglaries, we would also park smart, avoid side streets and dimly lit streets, particularly at night. As with any large city, visitors should stay alert and keep their phones and wallets secure at all times.
CLICK HERE for a full copy of the DCFGs quarterly neighborhood target market crime update. CLICK HERE to see a sample of our restaurant competitive analysis, including the neighborhood crime profiles for Tre Dita (Lakeshore East), Gibson’s Italia (Fulton River District), Bar Tutto (Fulton Market) and Le Grande Boucherie/Naia (River North).